Global lithium demand should double by 2024 as battery production quadruples

With the annual production of electric vehicles (EVs) set to grow from 3.4 million in 2020 to 12.7 million in 2024, and battery production growing from 95.3GWh to 410.5GWh over the same period, demand for lithium is expected to rise from a forecasted 47.3kt in 2020 to 117.4kt in 2024 at a 25.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Vinneth Bajaj, Senior Mining Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Lithium metal production is expected to reach 134.7kt versus 58.8kt in 2020. This follows a significant 18.2% decline in 2019 to 78.2kt, resulting from sluggish global EV sales and a steep fall in prices, which, in turn, encouraged reduced production levels.

“Lithium production over the next four years will be mainly supported by output from existing Australian mines such as Mount Cattlin and Pilgangoora. Other major mines include Mount Marion, Salar de Atacama and Salar del Hombre Muerto located in Australia, Chile and Argentina, respectively.”

Global demand for lithium will be driven by growth in battery manufacturing facilities, particularly in China - where lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity is expected to increase from an estimated 388.2GWh in 2020 to 575.3GWh in 2024. 

Bajaj continues: “According to GlobalData, nearly 12.7 million EVs are expected to be produced across the globe in 2024, increasing from 3.4 million in 2020. China is determined to boost EV sales, targeting a 20% share of the new car sales by 2025, versus just 5% in 2019. The country’s decision to cut subsidies in a phased manner until 2022, rather than eliminating it in 2020, is expected to provide an essential boost to the domestic market, as well as the overall global EV market.”

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